Relative strengthAdvantage SL Benfica
Prediction for Moreirense FC vs SL Benfica
Moreirense FCView team →LWLDD9.8%Moreirense FC
19.3%Draw
71%SL Benfica
SL BenficaView team →WWWDWVERDICTClear edge for SL Benfica
Foresportia's analysis estimates that SL Benfica has the advantage based on the 1X2 probabilities. The models give SL Benfica a clear edge in the 1X2 reading. The more protective signal remains double chance X2 at 90.2%, rather than the straight 1X2 pick. Confidence reflects how clear the signal is for this match; stability reflects its historical robustness.
1X2 STABILITYUltra stable The stability badge measures the historical robustness of the 1X2 signal.Model confidence 71.3%
ROBUST ALTERNATIVEDouble chance X2 · 90.2%A more protective scenario than the straight 1X2 pick.
Why the model sees it this way
Recent formAdvantage SL Benfica
Goal profileRather open
Signal stabilityVery high
Model confidenceHigh
Probabilities & verdict
Moreirense FC9.8%Draw19.3%
SL Benfica71%Main pickSL Benfica
1X2 STABILITYUltra stable
Model confidence71.3%
1X2 alternatives
| Market | Pick | Probability | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | X2 | 90.2% | Most robust signal |
| Draw no bet | SL Benfica | 87.9% | Solid |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 61.8% | Interesting |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% | Neutral |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 80.6% | Solid |
How the match could unfold
Expected goals (xG)0.76Moreirense FC
Total xG3.02
Expected goals (xG)2.26SL Benfica
Under 2.5 probability38.2%
BTTS No probability47.9%
Top 5 likely scores
1 - 212.7%0 - 110.5%0 - 39.8%0 - 29.6%1 - 38.5%
Advanced scenarios
Moreirense FCSL Benfica10%
Clean sheet43.8%
4.1%
Win to nil37.9%
2%
Win by 2 goals or more45.9%
Team comparison
13thCurrent position4th
1499Elo1795
LWLDDForm (last 5)WWWDW
0.8Goals scored / match (5)3.4
1.6Goals conceded / match (5)0.8
40.0Clean sheets (5)40.0
Prediction reliability
The signal belongs to the historically most stable profile, while remaining probabilistic.
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCEUltra stable profile
89.7%
89.7% correct predictions
over 116 verified matches
HISTORICAL SUCCESS RATE
Quick FAQ
What is the prediction for Moreirense FC vs SL Benfica?
The Foresportia model gives SL Benfica a clear edge at 71%. This estimate does not guarantee the final result.
What is the likely score?
The model's first score scenario is 1 - 2 (12.73%). An exact score remains one scenario among several.
Is BTTS likely?
The model estimates BTTS Yes at 52.1% and BTTS No at 47.9%.
Which market is the most cautious according to the model?
Double chance X2 stands at 90.2%, without being certain.
Explore more on Foresportia
Our commitment
◇ Predictions archived before kick-off
◇ No invented data
What the data says about Moreirense FC vs SL Benfica
This Liga Portugal fixture is presented using the competition calendar, the available standings and the teams' recent form.
Before kick-off, Moreirense FC sits 13th and SL Benfica 4th in the table. Their Elo ratings are 1499 for Moreirense FC and 1795 for SL Benfica.
Across the five latest available matches, the form index is 33.3% for Moreirense FC and 86.7% for SL Benfica. It measures recent momentum but does not decide the result on its own.
According to probabilities calculated by Foresportia, the 1X2 projection gives Moreirense FC 9.8%, the draw 19.3% and SL Benfica 71%. The expected-goals model projects 0.76 xG against 2.26, for a combined 3.02. The most likely score according to Foresportia is 1–2 at 12.7%.