Relative strengthBalanced
Prediction for FC Portsmouth vs Derby County
FC PortsmouthView team →LWLDW36.2%FC Portsmouth
30.7%Draw
33.1%Derby County
Derby CountyView team →LDLLWVERDICTVery balanced match
Foresportia's analysis estimates that FC Portsmouth has the advantage based on the 1X2 probabilities. The 1X2 probabilities are very close and do not identify a clear favourite. The stability level still calls for a cautious reading. The more protective signal remains double chance 1X at 66.9%, rather than the straight 1X2 pick. Confidence reflects how clear the signal is for this match; stability reflects its historical robustness.
1X2 STABILITYRisk The stability badge measures the historical robustness of the 1X2 signal.Model confidence 36.8%
ROBUST ALTERNATIVEDouble chance 1X · 66.9%A more protective scenario than the straight 1X2 pick.
Why the model sees it this way
Recent formAdvantage FC Portsmouth
Goal profileRather low-scoring
Signal stabilityLow
Model confidenceLow
Probabilities & verdict
FC Portsmouth36.2%Draw30.7%
Derby County33.1%Main pickFC Portsmouth
1X2 STABILITYRisk
Model confidence36.8%
1X2 alternatives
| Market | Pick | Probability | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 12 | 69.3% | Most robust signal |
| Draw no bet | FC Portsmouth | 52.2% | Neutral |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 54% | Neutral |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | Neutral |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 77% | Solid |
How the match could unfold
Expected goals (xG)1.24FC Portsmouth
Total xG2.41
Expected goals (xG)1.17Derby County
Under 2.5 probability54%
BTTS No probability48.8%
Top 5 likely scores
1 - 111.9%0 - 011.7%1 - 010.6%0 - 110%2 - 19.3%
Advanced scenarios
FC PortsmouthDerby County31.2%
Clean sheet29.4%
19.5%
Win to nil17.6%
14.7%
Win by 2 goals or more12.8%
Team comparison
15thCurrent position21st
1454Elo1446
LWLDWForm (last 5)LDLLW
1.8Goals scored / match (5)1.4
1.6Goals conceded / match (5)2.2
0.0Clean sheets (5)0.0
Prediction reliability
This match carries more uncertainty than average. Our models therefore reduce confidence slightly.
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCERisk profile
46%
46% correct predictions
over 965 verified matches
HISTORICAL SUCCESS RATE
Quick FAQ
What is the prediction for FC Portsmouth vs Derby County?
The Foresportia model sees a very balanced match. Caution is still required.
What is the likely score?
The model's first score scenario is 1 - 1 (11.90%). An exact score remains one scenario among several.
Is BTTS likely?
The model estimates BTTS Yes at 51.2% and BTTS No at 48.8%.
Which market is the most cautious according to the model?
Double chance 1X stands at 66.9%, without being certain.
Explore more on Foresportia
Our commitment
◇ Predictions archived before kick-off
◇ No invented data
What the data says about FC Portsmouth vs Derby County
This Championship fixture is presented using the competition calendar, the available standings and the teams' recent form.
Before kick-off, FC Portsmouth sits 15th and Derby County 21st in the table. Their Elo ratings are 1454 for FC Portsmouth and 1446 for Derby County.
Across the five latest available matches, the form index is 46.7% for FC Portsmouth and 26.7% for Derby County. It measures recent momentum but does not decide the result on its own.
According to probabilities calculated by Foresportia, the 1X2 projection gives FC Portsmouth 36.2%, the draw 30.7% and Derby County 33.1%. The expected-goals model projects 1.24 xG against 1.17, for a combined 2.41. The most likely score according to Foresportia is 1–1 at 11.9%.