Foresportia Elo
1476Championship rank : 21st
Derby County
Foresportia analyses Derby County using its match data and proprietary models: Elo level, recent form, probabilities, observed reliability and verifiable market signals.
1X2 entropy
1.52Lower = easier to readPoints volatility
1.20Standard deviation over 5 matchesRecent form
0.60Points per match over 5 matchesModel confidence
54.7%Average over 10 predictions1. How Foresportia evaluates Derby County
Summary of indicators actually available in Foresportia data.
2. Next match
FC PortsmouthElo : 1454
Derby CountyElo : 1446
1X2 probabilities (Foresportia model)
FC Portsmouth 36%Draw 31%Derby County 33%
3. Prediction reliability for Derby County
Data updated on 31 August 2026
Reliability trendCumulative monthly history
Insufficient sample| Cumulative monthly history | Profile | Reliability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08 | Risk | Insufficient sample | 3 |
| 2024-09 | Risk | Insufficient sample | 5 |
| 2024-10 | Risk | 50.0% | 10 |
| 2024-11 | Risk | 50.0% | 14 |
| 2024-12 | Risk | 52.6% | 19 |
| 2025-01 | Risk | 62.5% | 24 |
| 2025-02 | Risk | 64.3% | 28 |
| 2025-03 | Risk | 63.6% | 33 |
| 2025-04 | Risk | 59.0% | 39 |
| 2025-05 | Risk | 57.5% | 40 |
| 2025-08 | Risk | 54.8% | 42 |
| 2025-09 | Risk | 50.0% | 46 |
| 2025-10 | Risk | 48.0% | 50 |
| 2025-11 | Risk | 50.0% | 56 |
| 2025-12 | Risk | 50.0% | 62 |
| 2026-01 | Risk | 51.5% | 68 |
| 2026-02 | Risk | 50.7% | 73 |
| 2026-03 | Risk | 52.0% | 75 |
| 2026-04 | Risk | 54.4% | 79 |
| 2026-05 | Risk | 55.0% | 80 |
| 2026-08 | Risk | 53.7% | 82 |
| 2024-08 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2024-09 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 2 |
| 2024-10 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 2 |
| 2024-11 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 3 |
| 2024-12 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 5 |
| 2025-01 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 5 |
| 2025-02 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 6 |
| 2025-03 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 6 |
| 2025-04 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 6 |
| 2025-05 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 6 |
| 2025-08 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 8 |
| 2025-09 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 8 |
| 2025-10 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 8 |
| 2025-11 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 8 |
| 2025-12 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 8 |
| 2026-01 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 8 |
| 2026-02 | Correct and above | Insufficient sample | 8 |
| 2026-03 | Correct and above | 60.0% | 10 |
| 2026-04 | Correct and above | 66.7% | 12 |
| 2026-05 | Correct and above | 66.7% | 12 |
| 2026-08 | Correct and above | 66.7% | 12 |
| 2024-08 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-09 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-10 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-11 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-12 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-01 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-02 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-03 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-04 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-05 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-08 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 2 |
| 2025-09 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 2 |
| 2025-10 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 2 |
| 2025-11 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 2 |
| 2025-12 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 2 |
| 2026-01 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 2 |
| 2026-02 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 2 |
| 2026-03 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 2 |
| 2026-04 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 2 |
| 2026-05 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 2 |
| 2026-08 | Stable and above | Insufficient sample | 2 |
| 2024-08 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-09 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-10 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-11 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 0 |
| 2024-12 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-01 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-02 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-03 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-04 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-05 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-08 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-09 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-10 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-11 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2025-12 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2026-01 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2026-02 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2026-03 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2026-04 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2026-05 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 1 |
| 2026-08 | Ultra stable | Insufficient sample | 1 |
4. Predictive profile for Derby County
ContextObserved measureReading
Home performance1.45 pts/matchHigher observed return
Away performance1.09 pts/matchLower observed return
5. Statistical markers for Derby County
Team values from Foresportia sources, without a reconstructed league average.
History: 94 verified matches
6. Market signals for Derby County
MarketAverage probabilityReliabilityVolumeReading
Double chance 1270.5%95.0%20Major, well-documented signal
Home draw no bet65.4%81.8%11Success above the average probability
Home win54.8%100.0%4Promising signal, limited sample
Double chance 1X69.3%70.0%20Robust signal
Away draw no bet54.9%55.6%9Promising signal, limited sample
7. Model dynamics & analysis
Foresportia Elo trendTracks the team’s relative level as matches are played.
Derby County
Average model confidenceShows how the model’s average certainty changes across matches.
Derby County
xG differential trendCompares expected goals created and conceded to track the balance of chances.
PositiveNegative
Model calibrationCompares published probabilities with the rates actually observed.
Observed ratePerfect
League-position trendTracks the team’s league position throughout the season.
Derby County
Goals scored / concededCompares goals scored and conceded using a five-match rolling average.
Goals scored / match (5)Goals conceded / match (5)
Points per matchTracks points earned per match using a five-match rolling average.
Derby County
8. Foresportia analysis
For Foresportia, Derby County still requires a more cautious read tied to recent form and match context. This page also tracks ranking, Elo evolution, goal trends and the market signals Foresportia finds most useful.
Derby County still needs to be read through recent form, Elo and its advanced production indicators.
The next detected match is FC Portsmouth vs Derby County on . The leading 1X2 read currently points to “Home win” around 36%.
AI verdictStrong predictive reliability
Correct and above: 66.7% success across 12 verified 1X2 predictions.
Verify the complete history →Continue exploring
Upcoming matches, competition, other teams and verifiable history.
9. Derby County FAQ
What is the next match for Derby County on Foresportia?
This page shows Derby County's confirmed next match with the enriched prediction probabilities that are currently available.
How should you read Derby County's ranking and Elo?
This page includes dedicated charts for Derby County's ranking and Elo trends, with season separators to make the evolution easier to read.
What does the strongest picks block mean for Derby County?
It highlights the markets that performed best in the available history for Derby County, together with sample size, hit rate and average probability.
Derby County: AI analysis, predictions and Foresportia signals
For Foresportia, Derby County still requires a more cautious read tied to recent form and match context. This page also tracks ranking, Elo evolution, goal trends and the market signals Foresportia finds most useful.
Derby County still needs to be read through recent form, Elo and its advanced production indicators.
The next detected match is FC Portsmouth vs Derby County on . The leading 1X2 read currently points to “Home win” around 36%.