Relative strengthAdvantage Grêmio Porto Alegre
Prediction for Grêmio Porto Alegre vs Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
Grêmio Porto AlegreView team →LLWDL62.7%Grêmio Porto Alegre
23.2%Draw
14.1%Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
Associação Chapecoense de FutebolView team →WDLDLVERDICTModerate edge for Grêmio Porto Alegre
Foresportia's analysis estimates that Grêmio Porto Alegre has the advantage based on the 1X2 probabilities. The models give Grêmio Porto Alegre a moderate edge in the 1X2 reading. The more protective signal remains double chance 1X at 85.9%, rather than the straight 1X2 pick. Confidence reflects how clear the signal is for this match; stability reflects its historical robustness.
1X2 STABILITYStable The stability badge measures the historical robustness of the 1X2 signal.Model confidence 87.9%
ROBUST ALTERNATIVEDouble chance 1X · 85.9%A more protective scenario than the straight 1X2 pick.
Why the model sees it this way
Recent formRather balanced
Goal profileIntermediate goal profile
Signal stabilityHigh
Model confidenceVery high
Probabilities & verdict
Grêmio Porto Alegre62.7%Draw23.2%
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol14.1%Main pickGrêmio Porto Alegre
1X2 STABILITYStable
Model confidence87.9%
1X2 alternatives
| Market | Pick | Probability | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.9% | Most robust signal |
| Draw no bet | Grêmio Porto Alegre | 81.7% | Solid |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 57% | Interesting |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.3% | Neutral |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76.9% | Solid |
How the match could unfold
Expected goals (xG)1.96Grêmio Porto Alegre
Total xG2.80
Expected goals (xG)0.84Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
Under 2.5 probability43%
BTTS No probability46.7%
Top 5 likely scores
2 - 113.2%1 - 011.2%1 - 19.8%2 - 08.8%3 - 07.9%
Advanced scenarios
Grêmio Porto AlegreAssociação Chapecoense de Futebol40.5%
Clean sheet13.7%
33%
Win to nil6.1%
36.5%
Win by 2 goals or more3.4%
Team comparison
15thCurrent position20th
1460Elo1328
LLWDLForm (last 5)WDLDL
0.8Goals scored / match (5)1.4
1.6Goals conceded / match (5)2.2
0.0Clean sheets (5)20.0
Prediction reliability
The signal belongs to a historically stable profile, without guaranteeing the outcome.
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCEStable profile
86.4%
86.4% correct predictions
over 81 verified matches
HISTORICAL SUCCESS RATE
Quick FAQ
What is the prediction for Grêmio Porto Alegre vs Associação Chapecoense de Futebol?
The Foresportia model gives Grêmio Porto Alegre a moderate edge at 62.7%. This estimate does not guarantee the final result.
What is the likely score?
The model's first score scenario is 2 - 1 (13.15%). An exact score remains one scenario among several.
Is BTTS likely?
The model estimates BTTS Yes at 53.3% and BTTS No at 46.7%.
Which market is the most cautious according to the model?
Double chance 1X stands at 85.9%, without being certain.
Explore more on Foresportia
Our commitment
◇ Predictions archived before kick-off
◇ No invented data
What the data says about Grêmio Porto Alegre vs Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
This Brasileirão fixture is presented using the competition calendar, the available standings and the teams' recent form.
Before kick-off, Grêmio Porto Alegre sits 15th and Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 20th in the table. Their Elo ratings are 1460 for Grêmio Porto Alegre and 1328 for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol.
Across the five latest available matches, the form index is 26.7% for Grêmio Porto Alegre and 33.3% for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol. It measures recent momentum but does not decide the result on its own.
According to probabilities calculated by Foresportia, the 1X2 projection gives Grêmio Porto Alegre 62.7%, the draw 23.2% and Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 14.1%. The expected-goals model projects 1.96 xG against 0.84, for a combined 2.80. The most likely score according to Foresportia is 2–1 at 13.2%.