Relative strengthSlight edge for Esporte Clube Bahia
Prediction for Esporte Clube Vitória vs Esporte Clube Bahia
Esporte Clube VitóriaView team →WLLLD32.5%Esporte Clube Vitória
29.6%Draw
38%Esporte Clube Bahia
Esporte Clube BahiaView team →DDDDDVERDICTEsporte Clube Bahia slight favourite
The models give Esporte Clube Bahia a slight edge, but the gap is not large enough to form a strong signal. The stability level still calls for a cautious reading. The more protective signal remains double chance X2 at 67.5%, rather than the straight 1X2 pick.
1X2 STABILITYRisk
Model confidence 19.9%
ROBUST ALTERNATIVEDouble chance X2 · 67.5%A more protective scenario than the straight 1X2 pick.
Why the model sees it this way
Recent formRather balanced
Goal profileIntermediate goal profile
Signal stabilityLow
Model confidenceLow
Probabilities & verdict
Esporte Clube Vitória32.5%Draw29.6%
Esporte Clube Bahia38%Main pickEsporte Clube Bahia
1X2 STABILITYRisk
Model confidence19.9%
1X2 alternatives
MarketPickProbabilityReading
Double chance1270.4%Most robust signal
Draw no betEsporte Clube Bahia53.9%Neutral
Total goalsOver 2.550%Neutral
Both teams to scoreYes55%Interesting
Total goalsUnder 3.575.4%Solid
How the match could unfold
Expected goals (xG)1.20Esporte Clube Vitória
Total xG2.51
Expected goals (xG)1.31Esporte Clube Bahia
Under 2.5 probability50%
BTTS No probability45%
Top 5 likely scores
1 - 111.8%1 - 210.7%0 - 010.6%0 - 19.8%2 - 19.6%
Advanced scenarios
Esporte Clube VitóriaEsporte Clube Bahia26.3%
Clean sheet29.3%
15.7%
Win to nil18.7%
12%
Win by 2 goals or more15.5%
Team comparison
12thCurrent position6th
1490Elo1533
WLLLDForm (last 5)DDDDD
0.2Goals scored / match (5)1.0
1.6Goals conceded / match (5)1.0
40.0Clean sheets (5)40.0
Prediction reliability
This match carries more uncertainty than average. Our models therefore reduce confidence slightly.
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCERisk profile
46.1%
46.1% correct predictions
over 727 verified matches
HISTORICAL SUCCESS RATE
Quick FAQ
What is the prediction for Esporte Clube Vitória vs Esporte Clube Bahia?
The model sees an open match and gives Esporte Clube Bahia a slight edge at 38%; caution is appropriate.
What is the likely score?
The model's first score scenario is 1 - 1 (11.84%). An exact score remains one scenario among several.
Is BTTS likely?
The model estimates BTTS Yes at 55% and BTTS No at 45%.
Which market is the most cautious according to the model?
Double chance X2 stands at 67.5%, without being certain.
Explore more on Foresportia
Our commitment
◇ Predictions archived before kick-off
◇ No invented data
What the data says about Esporte Clube Vitória vs Esporte Clube Bahia
This Brasileirão fixture is presented using the competition calendar, the available standings and the teams' recent form.
Before kick-off, Esporte Clube Vitória sits 12th and Esporte Clube Bahia 6th in the table. Their Elo ratings are 1490 for Esporte Clube Vitória and 1533 for Esporte Clube Bahia.
Across the five latest available matches, the form index is 26.7% for Esporte Clube Vitória and 33.3% for Esporte Clube Bahia. It measures recent momentum but does not decide the result on its own.
The 1X2 projection gives Esporte Clube Vitória 32.5%, the draw 29.6% and Esporte Clube Bahia 38%. The expected-goals model projects 1.20 xG against 1.31, for a combined 2.51.