Relative strengthAdvantage FC São Paulo
Prediction for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs FC São Paulo
Associação Chapecoense de FutebolView team →DLDLL17.3%Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
25%Draw
57.7%FC São Paulo
FC São PauloView team →DLDLLVERDICTFC São Paulo favourite
The models give FC São Paulo a clear edge in the 1X2 reading. The stability level still calls for a cautious reading. The more protective signal remains double chance X2 at 82.7%, rather than the straight 1X2 pick.
1X2 STABILITYRisk
Model confidence 57.4%
ROBUST ALTERNATIVEDouble chance X2 · 82.7%A more protective scenario than the straight 1X2 pick.
Why the model sees it this way
Recent formRather balanced
Goal profileIntermediate goal profile
Signal stabilityLow
Model confidenceModerate
Probabilities & verdict
Associação Chapecoense de Futebol17.3%Draw25%
FC São Paulo57.7%Main pickFC São Paulo
1X2 STABILITYRisk
Model confidence57.4%
1X2 alternatives
MarketPickProbabilityReading
Double chanceX282.7%Most robust signal
Draw no betFC São Paulo77%Solid
Total goalsOver 2.556.1%Interesting
Both teams to scoreYes55.3%Interesting
Total goalsOver 1.576.2%Solid
How the match could unfold
Expected goals (xG)0.93Associação Chapecoense de Futebol
Total xG2.77
Expected goals (xG)1.84FC São Paulo
Under 2.5 probability43.9%
BTTS No probability44.7%
Top 5 likely scores
1 - 213%0 - 110.9%1 - 110.5%0 - 28%0 - 07.8%
Advanced scenarios
Associação Chapecoense de FutebolFC São Paulo15.4%
Clean sheet37.2%
7.5%
Win to nil29.3%
4.7%
Win by 2 goals or more31.9%
Team comparison
20thCurrent position13th
1353Elo1492
DLDLLForm (last 5)DLDLL
1.2Goals scored / match (5)0.8
2.6Goals conceded / match (5)1.4
0.0Clean sheets (5)0.0
Prediction reliability
This match carries more uncertainty than average. Our models therefore reduce confidence slightly.
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCERisk profile
46.1%
46.1% correct predictions
over 727 verified matches
HISTORICAL SUCCESS RATE
Quick FAQ
What is the prediction for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs FC São Paulo?
The model sees an open match and gives FC São Paulo a slight edge at 57.7%; caution is appropriate.
What is the likely score?
The model's first score scenario is 1 - 2 (12.99%). An exact score remains one scenario among several.
Is BTTS likely?
The model estimates BTTS Yes at 55.3% and BTTS No at 44.7%.
Which market is the most cautious according to the model?
Double chance X2 stands at 82.7%, without being certain.
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Our commitment
◇ Predictions archived before kick-off
◇ No invented data
What the data says about Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs FC São Paulo
This Brasileirão fixture is presented using the competition calendar, the available standings and the teams' recent form.
Before kick-off, Associação Chapecoense de Futebol sits 20th and FC São Paulo 13th in the table. Their Elo ratings are 1353 for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol and 1492 for FC São Paulo.
Across the five latest available matches, the form index is 13.3% for Associação Chapecoense de Futebol and 13.3% for FC São Paulo. It measures recent momentum but does not decide the result on its own.
The 1X2 projection gives Associação Chapecoense de Futebol 17.3%, the draw 25% and FC São Paulo 57.7%. The expected-goals model projects 0.93 xG against 1.84, for a combined 2.77.