MLS · Scheduled

First AI projection for St. Louis CITY SC vs Sporting Kansas City

First AI projection for this MLS fixture. This early estimate may change closer to kick-off.

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St. Louis CITY SC

Standing#19

Elo rating1478

Form index66.7%

Last 5 matches
WDWWL

Expected goals4.12

ScheduledVSJuly 17, 2026
02:30

Sporting Kansas City

Standing#18

Elo rating1354

Form index46.7%

Last 5 matches
LWWLD

Expected goals0.64

Match context to watch
I-70 derby

Quick read

  • Main predictionOpen match; slight edge for St. Louis CITY SC at 51.5%, so caution is advised.
  • Confidence levelRisk
  • Cautious marketDouble chance 1X · 78.4%
  • Likely score4 - 0 (10.31%)
  • BTTSYes · 59.8%
  • Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 59.7%

First AI projection

This early estimate is published ahead of the match. Probabilities may change with recent form, injuries, line-ups, scheduling and newly available data.

St. Louis CITY SC51.5%
Draw26.9%
Sporting Kansas City21.6%

Main pickSt. Louis CITY SC51.5%

Confidence70.9%

StabilityRisk

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Expected goals and trends

St. Louis CITY SC4.12
Expected total4.75
Sporting Kansas City0.64
59.7%Over 2.5

Over 59.7% Under 40.3%

59.8%BTTS

Yes 59.8% No 40.2%

Double chance

Available markets

1X78.4%
X248.5%
1273.1%

Top 5 likely scores

  1. Likely score 4 - 010.3%
  2. Likely score 3 - 010%
  3. Likely score 5 - 08.5%
  4. Likely score 2 - 07.3%
  5. Likely score 4 - 16.6%

Advanced scenarios

Clean sheet

St. Louis CITY SC 52.9%Sporting Kansas City 1.6%

Draw no bet

St. Louis CITY SC 70.5%Sporting Kansas City 29.5%

Win to nil

St. Louis CITY SC 52%Sporting Kansas City 0.7%

Win by 2+ goals

St. Louis CITY SC 82.2%Sporting Kansas City 0.4%

St. Louis CITY SC vs Sporting Kansas City early projection FAQ

What does the first AI projection say about St. Louis CITY SC vs Sporting Kansas City?

The early estimate gives St. Louis CITY SC a slight edge at 51.5%. This probability may change before the match.

Why can this estimate change?

Recent form, injuries, line-ups, fixture congestion and newly available data will be included in later updates.

Is an early likely score available?

The first calculated scenario is 4 - 0 (10.31%), but this is an early estimate that may change.

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MLS

What the data says about St. Louis CITY SC vs Sporting Kansas City

This MLS fixture comes from a competition where conference dynamics, travel and swings in form can create quick changes in performance.

Before kick-off, St. Louis CITY SC sits 19th and Sporting Kansas City 18th in the table. Their Elo ratings are 1478 for St. Louis CITY SC and 1354 for Sporting Kansas City.

Across the five latest available matches, the form index is 66.7% for St. Louis CITY SC and 46.7% for Sporting Kansas City. It measures recent momentum but does not decide the result on its own.

The 1X2 projection gives St. Louis CITY SC 51.5%, the draw 26.9% and Sporting Kansas City 21.6%. The expected-goals model projects 4.12 xG against 0.64, for a combined 4.75.