MLS · Scheduled

First AI projection for CF Montréal vs Toronto FC

First AI projection for this MLS fixture. This early estimate may change closer to kick-off.

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CF Montréal

Standing#21

Elo rating1393

Form index33.3%

Last 5 matches
DLDWL

Expected goals2.57

ScheduledVSJuly 17, 2026
01:30

Toronto FC

Standing#29

Elo rating1431

Form index6.7%

Last 5 matches
LLLDL

Expected goals0.82

Match context to watch
401 derby

Quick read

  • Main predictionOpen match; slight edge for CF Montréal at 43.9%, so caution is advised.
  • Confidence levelRisk
  • Cautious marketDouble chance 1X · 73.6%
  • Likely score2 - 0 (11.10%)
  • BTTSYes · 57.4%
  • Over/Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 54%

First AI projection

This early estimate is published ahead of the match. Probabilities may change with recent form, injuries, line-ups, scheduling and newly available data.

CF Montréal43.9%
Draw29.8%
Toronto FC26.4%

Main pickCF Montréal43.9%

Confidence81.4%

StabilityRisk

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Expected goals and trends

CF Montréal2.57
Expected total3.39
Toronto FC0.82
54%Over 2.5

Over 54% Under 46%

57.4%BTTS

Yes 57.4% No 42.6%

Double chance

Available markets

1X73.6%
X256.1%
1270.2%

Top 5 likely scores

  1. Likely score 2 - 0 — 11.1%
  2. Likely score 3 - 0 — 9.5%
  3. Likely score 2 - 1 — 9.2%
  4. Likely score 1 - 0 — 8.7%
  5. Likely score 3 - 1 — 7.8%

Advanced scenarios

Clean sheet

CF Montréal 43.9%Toronto FC 7.7%

Draw no bet

CF Montréal 62.5%Toronto FC 37.5%

Win to nil

CF Montréal 40.4%Toronto FC 4.2%

Win by 2+ goals

CF Montréal 53.3%Toronto FC 2.7%

CF Montréal vs Toronto FC early projection FAQ

What does the first AI projection say about CF Montréal vs Toronto FC?

The early estimate gives CF Montréal a slight edge at 43.9%. This probability may change before the match.

Why can this estimate change?

Recent form, injuries, line-ups, fixture congestion and newly available data will be included in later updates.

Is an early likely score available?

The first calculated scenario is 2 - 0 (11.10%), but this is an early estimate that may change.

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More football tools and analysis

Check today's matches and updated results, compare standings and team form, then explore more fixtures and AI analysis from this league.

MLS

What the data says about CF Montréal vs Toronto FC

This MLS fixture comes from a competition where conference dynamics, travel and swings in form can create quick changes in performance.

Before kick-off, CF Montréal sits 21st and Toronto FC 29th in the table. Their Elo ratings are 1393 for CF Montréal and 1431 for Toronto FC.

Across the five latest available matches, the form index is 33.3% for CF Montréal and 6.7% for Toronto FC. It measures recent momentum but does not decide the result on its own.

The 1X2 projection gives CF Montréal 43.9%, the draw 29.8% and Toronto FC 26.4%. The expected-goals model projects 2.57 xG against 0.82, for a combined 3.39.