Relative strengthSlight edge for NEC Nijmegen
Prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Rotterdam
NEC NijmegenView team →LWWLW46.5%NEC Nijmegen
27.7%Draw
25.8%Excelsior Rotterdam
Excelsior RotterdamView team →WWLWWVERDICTNEC Nijmegen slight favourite
Foresportia's analysis estimates that NEC Nijmegen has the advantage based on the 1X2 probabilities. The models give NEC Nijmegen a slight edge, but the gap is not large enough to form a strong signal. The stability level still calls for a cautious reading. The more protective signal remains double chance 1X at 74.2%, rather than the straight 1X2 pick. Confidence reflects how clear the signal is for this match; stability reflects its historical robustness.
1X2 STABILITYRisk The stability badge measures the historical robustness of the 1X2 signal.Model confidence 45.8%
ROBUST ALTERNATIVEDouble chance 1X · 74.2%A more protective scenario than the straight 1X2 pick.
Why the model sees it this way
Recent formAdvantage Excelsior Rotterdam
Goal profileIntermediate goal profile
Signal stabilityLow
Model confidenceModerate
Probabilities & verdict
NEC Nijmegen46.5%Draw27.7%
Excelsior Rotterdam25.8%Main pickNEC Nijmegen
1X2 STABILITYRisk
Model confidence45.8%
1X2 alternatives
| Market | Pick | Probability | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.2% | Most robust signal |
| Draw no bet | NEC Nijmegen | 64.3% | Interesting |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 60.1% | Interesting |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% | Interesting |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77.6% | Solid |
How the match could unfold
Expected goals (xG)1.68NEC Nijmegen
Total xG2.84
Expected goals (xG)1.17Excelsior Rotterdam
Under 2.5 probability39.9%
BTTS No probability38.2%
Top 5 likely scores
2 - 113.8%1 - 110.2%1 - 29.1%1 - 08.7%0 - 08%
Advanced scenarios
NEC NijmegenExcelsior Rotterdam28.6%
Clean sheet17.6%
20.6%
Win to nil9.6%
23.3%
Win by 2 goals or more8.1%
Team comparison
7thCurrent position9th
1587Elo1538
LWWLWForm (last 5)WWLWW
2.2Goals scored / match (5)2.6
1.6Goals conceded / match (5)1.0
0.0Clean sheets (5)40.0
Prediction reliability
This match carries more uncertainty than average. Our models therefore reduce confidence slightly.
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCERisk profile
44%
44% correct predictions
over 266 verified matches
HISTORICAL SUCCESS RATE
Quick FAQ
What is the prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Rotterdam?
The Foresportia model gives NEC Nijmegen a slight edge at 46.5%. Caution is still required.
What is the likely score?
The model's first score scenario is 2 - 1 (13.84%). An exact score remains one scenario among several.
Is BTTS likely?
The model estimates BTTS Yes at 61.8% and BTTS No at 38.2%.
Which market is the most cautious according to the model?
Double chance 1X stands at 74.2%, without being certain.
Explore more on Foresportia
Our commitment
◇ Predictions archived before kick-off
◇ No invented data
What the data says about NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Rotterdam
This Eredivisie fixture is presented using the competition calendar, the available standings and the teams' recent form.
Before kick-off, NEC Nijmegen sits 7th and Excelsior Rotterdam 9th in the table. Their Elo ratings are 1587 for NEC Nijmegen and 1538 for Excelsior Rotterdam.
Across the five latest available matches, the form index is 60% for NEC Nijmegen and 80% for Excelsior Rotterdam. It measures recent momentum but does not decide the result on its own.
According to probabilities calculated by Foresportia, the 1X2 projection gives NEC Nijmegen 46.5%, the draw 27.7% and Excelsior Rotterdam 25.8%. The expected-goals model projects 1.68 xG against 1.17, for a combined 2.84. The most likely score according to Foresportia is 2–1 at 13.8%.