Relative strengthSlight edge for Grêmio Porto Alegre
Prediction for Grêmio Porto Alegre vs Clube de Regatas Vasco da Gama
Grêmio Porto AlegreView team →WLLWD49.2%Grêmio Porto Alegre
27.4%Draw
23.4%Clube de Regatas Vasco da Gama
Clube de Regatas Vasco da GamaView team →LWLLDVERDICTGrêmio Porto Alegre slight favourite
Foresportia's analysis estimates that Grêmio Porto Alegre has the advantage based on the 1X2 probabilities. The models give Grêmio Porto Alegre a slight edge, but the gap is not large enough to form a strong signal. The stability level still calls for a cautious reading. The more protective signal remains double chance 1X at 76.6%, rather than the straight 1X2 pick. Confidence reflects how clear the signal is for this match; stability reflects its historical robustness.
1X2 STABILITYRisk The stability badge measures the historical robustness of the 1X2 signal.Model confidence 49.9%
ROBUST ALTERNATIVEDouble chance 1X · 76.6%A more protective scenario than the straight 1X2 pick.
Why the model sees it this way
Recent formAdvantage Grêmio Porto Alegre
Goal profileIntermediate goal profile
Signal stabilityLow
Model confidenceModerate
Probabilities & verdict
Grêmio Porto Alegre49.2%Draw27.4%
Clube de Regatas Vasco da Gama23.4%Main pickGrêmio Porto Alegre
1X2 STABILITYRisk
Model confidence49.9%
1X2 alternatives
| Market | Pick | Probability | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.6% | Most robust signal |
| Draw no bet | Grêmio Porto Alegre | 67.8% | Solid |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 56.5% | Interesting |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% | Interesting |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 75.5% | Solid |
How the match could unfold
Expected goals (xG)1.69Grêmio Porto Alegre
Total xG2.78
Expected goals (xG)1.09Clube de Regatas Vasco da Gama
Under 2.5 probability43.5%
BTTS No probability42.8%
Top 5 likely scores
2 - 112.2%1 - 110.2%1 - 010%0 - 08.3%1 - 27.6%
Advanced scenarios
Grêmio Porto AlegreClube de Regatas Vasco da Gama32.5%
Clean sheet18.6%
24.2%
Win to nil10.3%
25.6%
Win by 2 goals or more7.8%
Team comparison
15thCurrent position17th
1470Elo1420
WLLWDForm (last 5)LWLLD
1.2Goals scored / match (5)0.8
1.4Goals conceded / match (5)1.8
0.0Clean sheets (5)20.0
Prediction reliability
This match carries more uncertainty than average. Our models therefore reduce confidence slightly.
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCERisk profile
45.9%
45.9% correct predictions
over 743 verified matches
HISTORICAL SUCCESS RATE
Quick FAQ
What is the prediction for Grêmio Porto Alegre vs Clube de Regatas Vasco da Gama?
The Foresportia model gives Grêmio Porto Alegre a slight edge at 49.2%. Caution is still required.
What is the likely score?
The model's first score scenario is 2 - 1 (12.22%). An exact score remains one scenario among several.
Is BTTS likely?
The model estimates BTTS Yes at 57.2% and BTTS No at 42.8%.
Which market is the most cautious according to the model?
Double chance 1X stands at 76.6%, without being certain.
Explore more on Foresportia
Our commitment
◇ Predictions archived before kick-off
◇ No invented data
What the data says about Grêmio Porto Alegre vs Clube de Regatas Vasco da Gama
This Brasileirão fixture is presented using the competition calendar, the available standings and the teams' recent form.
Before kick-off, Grêmio Porto Alegre sits 15th and Clube de Regatas Vasco da Gama 17th in the table. Their Elo ratings are 1470 for Grêmio Porto Alegre and 1420 for Clube de Regatas Vasco da Gama.
Across the five latest available matches, the form index is 46.7% for Grêmio Porto Alegre and 26.7% for Clube de Regatas Vasco da Gama. It measures recent momentum but does not decide the result on its own.
According to probabilities calculated by Foresportia, the 1X2 projection gives Grêmio Porto Alegre 49.2%, the draw 27.4% and Clube de Regatas Vasco da Gama 23.4%. The expected-goals model projects 1.69 xG against 1.09, for a combined 2.78. The most likely score according to Foresportia is 2–1 at 12.2%.