The probability threshold defines the minimum confidence required for displayed results.
For example, a 50% threshold means only predictions with at least 50% probability are included.
How we verify AI football prediction reliability
This page exists to compare published probabilities with real football results over a large sample. A 60 percent probability is never a promise on one isolated match, but it should remain coherent when you measure it across many comparable fixtures. That is why Foresportia exposes total volume, success rate by league and the impact of stricter probability thresholds instead of showing isolated highlights only.
The verification method is based on settled matches with known scores. We compare the 1X2 outcome that was favored by the model with the observed result, then track how reliability behaves across competitions and filters. This makes it easier to separate raw probability from historically robust probability. Used with the picks history, the daily prediction pages and the league result hubs, this page serves as the core proof layer of the product.