1X Uzbekistan or draw
36.7 %
Uzbekistan
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 18, 2026 · 04:00
Colombia
Model favorite Colombia win 63.3 %
FavoriteColombia
Confidence score65.8 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Uzbekistan win | 13.37 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.32 % |
| Colombia win | 63.31 % |
Dominant scenario: 40.0-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
58.9 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 58.9 %
Over 2.5 41.1 %
61.9 % No BTTS
No 61.9 %
Yes 38.1 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Colombia
86.6 %
12 Either team wins
76.7 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Uzbekistan 18.3 % · Colombia 53.4 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Uzbekistan 17.4 % · Colombia 82.6 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Uzbekistan 8.5 % · Colombia 43.6 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Uzbekistan 3.3 % · Colombia 36.2 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 0-1 16.59 %
- 0-2 14.08 %
- 1-1 10.42 %
- 0-0 9.77 %
- 1-2 8.85 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 0-1 (16.59%); next scenarios: 0-2 (14.08%), 1-1 (10.42%).
Elo context
Uzbekistan1763
Colombia1977
Elo gap of 213 points in favour of Colombia (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Uzbekistan vs Colombia analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.