1X USA or draw
62.0 %
USA
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 13, 2026 · 03:00
Paraguay
Model favorite Paraguay win 38.0 %
FavoriteParaguay
Confidence score37.7 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| USA win | 36.01 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.96 % |
| Paraguay win | 38.02 % |
Three scenarios very close: undecided match according to the model.
Goal trends
50.0 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 50.0 %
Over 2.5 50.0 %
54.3 % BTTS
Yes 54.3 %
No 45.7 %
No clear goal trend: balanced markets.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Paraguay
64.0 %
12 Either team wins
74.0 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
USA 25.7 % · Paraguay 26.9 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
USA 48.6 % · Paraguay 51.4 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
USA 18.8 % · Paraguay 19.9 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
USA 16.0 % · Paraguay 17.4 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 12.33 %
- 0-1 9.38 %
- 1-0 9.08 %
- 1-2 8.37 %
- 2-1 8.11 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (12.33%); next scenarios: 0-1 (9.38%), 1-0 (9.08%).
Elo context
USA1795
Paraguay1803
Very small Elo gap: teams rated close to each other.
Match FAQ
How should I read the USA vs Paraguay analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.