1X United States or draw
50.4 %
United States
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 7, 2026 · 02:00
Belgium
Model favorite Belgium win 49.6 %
FavoriteBelgium
Confidence score48.7 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| United States win | 31.17 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 19.21 % |
| Belgium win | 49.62 % |
Clear 18.4-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
81.3 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 81.3 %
Under 2.5 18.7 %
78.2 % BTTS
Yes 78.2 %
No 21.8 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Belgium
68.8 %
12 Either team wins
80.8 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
United States 8.7 % · Belgium 14.3 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
United States 38.6 % · Belgium 61.4 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
United States 7.4 % · Belgium 13.1 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
United States 16.2 % · Belgium 30.7 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-2 7.23 %
- 2-2 7.02 %
- 1-1 5.91 %
- 1-3 5.89 %
- 2-1 5.74 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-2 (7.23%); next scenarios: 2-2 (7.02%), 1-1 (5.91%).
Elo context
United States1839
Belgium1935
Elo gap of 96 points in favour of Belgium (moderate).
Match FAQ
How should I read the United States vs Belgium analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.