1X USA or draw
59.1 %
USA
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 19, 2026 · 21:00
Australia
Model favorite Australia win 40.9 %
FavoriteAustralia
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| USA win | 34.62 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.49 % |
| Australia win | 40.89 % |
Tight 6.3-point lead between the two most likely scenarios.
Goal trends
56.4 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 56.4 %
Under 2.5 43.6 %
59.3 % BTTS
Yes 59.3 %
No 40.7 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Australia
65.4 %
12 Either team wins
75.5 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
USA 21.4 % · Australia 24.6 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
USA 45.8 % · Australia 54.2 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
USA 16.1 % · Australia 19.4 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
USA 15.8 % · Australia 20.2 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 11.38 %
- 1-2 8.78 %
- 0-1 8.12 %
- 2-1 7.98 %
- 1-0 7.37 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (11.38%); next scenarios: 1-2 (8.78%), 0-1 (8.12%).
Elo context
USA1804
Australia1831
Elo gap of 26 points in favour of Australia (slight).
Match FAQ
How should I read the USA vs Australia analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.