1X United States or draw
58.3 %
United States
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 19, 2026 · 21:00
Australia
Model favorite Australia win 41.7 %
FavoriteAustralia
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| United States win | 34.14 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.13 % |
| Australia win | 41.73 % |
Tight 7.6-point lead between the two most likely scenarios.
Goal trends
58.1 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 58.1 %
Under 2.5 41.9 %
60.5 % BTTS
Yes 60.5 %
No 39.5 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Australia
65.9 %
12 Either team wins
75.9 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
United States 20.3 % · Australia 24.1 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
United States 45.0 % · Australia 55.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
United States 15.4 % · Australia 19.2 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
United States 15.7 % · Australia 21.0 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 11.10 %
- 1-2 8.85 %
- 2-1 7.89 %
- 0-1 7.81 %
- 1-0 6.96 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (11.10%); next scenarios: 1-2 (8.85%), 2-1 (7.89%).
Elo context
United States1844
Australia1877
Elo gap of 32 points in favour of Australia (slight).
Match FAQ
How should I read the United States vs Australia analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.