1X Uruguay or draw
40.2 %
Uruguay
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 27, 2026 · 02:00
Spain
Model favorite Spain win 59.8 %
FavoriteSpain
Confidence score59.9 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Uruguay win | 16.29 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.94 % |
| Spain win | 59.76 % |
Dominant scenario: 35.8-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
56.5 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 56.5 %
Over 2.5 43.5 %
57.4 % No BTTS
No 57.4 %
Yes 42.6 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority).
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Spain
83.7 %
12 Either team wins
76.1 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Uruguay 18.7 % · Spain 47.6 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Uruguay 21.4 % · Spain 78.6 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Uruguay 9.8 % · Spain 38.7 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Uruguay 4.6 % · Spain 33.4 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 0-1 14.93 %
- 0-2 12.51 %
- 1-1 11.08 %
- 1-2 9.29 %
- 0-0 8.90 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 0-1 (14.93%); next scenarios: 0-2 (12.51%), 1-1 (11.08%).
Elo context
Uruguay1898
Spain2082
Elo gap of 184 points in favour of Spain (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Uruguay vs Spain analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.