1X Uruguay or draw
91.2 %
Uruguay
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 22, 2026 · 00:00
Cape Verde
Model favorite Uruguay win 67.6 %
FavoriteUruguay
Confidence score72.4 %
StabilityCorrect
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Uruguay win | 67.64 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.61 % |
| Cape Verde win | 8.75 % |
Dominant scenario: 44.0-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
67.7 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 67.7 %
Over 2.5 32.3 %
73.8 % No BTTS
No 73.8 %
Yes 26.1 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Cape Verde
32.4 %
12 Either team wins
76.4 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Uruguay 67.3 % · Cape Verde 20.1 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Uruguay 88.5 % · Cape Verde 11.5 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Uruguay 53.7 % · Cape Verde 6.6 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Uruguay 38.3 % · Cape Verde 1.5 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 21.70 %
- 2-0 17.40 %
- 0-0 13.53 %
- 3-0 9.30 %
- 1-1 8.60 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (21.70%); next scenarios: 2-0 (17.40%), 0-0 (13.53%).
Elo context
Uruguay1878
Cape Verde1633
Elo gap of 244 points in favour of Uruguay (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Uruguay vs Cape Verde analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.