1X Uruguay or draw
92.1 %
Uruguay
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 22, 2026 · 00:00
Cape Verde Islands
Model favorite Uruguay win 69.2 %
FavoriteUruguay
Confidence score72.6 %
StabilityCorrect
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Uruguay win | 69.18 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 22.95 % |
| Cape Verde Islands win | 7.87 % |
Dominant scenario: 46.2-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
67.7 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 67.7 %
Over 2.5 32.3 %
75.3 % No BTTS
No 75.3 %
Yes 24.7 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Cape Verde Islands
30.8 %
12 Either team wins
77.0 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Uruguay 69.3 % · Cape Verde Islands 19.5 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Uruguay 89.8 % · Cape Verde Islands 10.2 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Uruguay 55.7 % · Cape Verde Islands 6.0 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Uruguay 39.8 % · Cape Verde Islands 1.2 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 22.10 %
- 2-0 18.04 %
- 0-0 13.53 %
- 3-0 9.82 %
- 1-1 8.12 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (22.10%); next scenarios: 2-0 (18.04%), 0-0 (13.53%).
Elo context
Uruguay1898
Cape Verde Islands1639
Elo gap of 258 points in favour of Uruguay (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.