1X Türkiye or draw
65.4 %
Türkiye
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 26, 2026 · 04:00
USA
Model favorite Türkiye win 44.1 %
FavoriteTürkiye
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Türkiye win | 44.12 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.25 % |
| USA win | 34.63 % |
Tight 9.5-point lead between the two most likely scenarios.
Goal trends
72.6 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 72.6 %
Under 2.5 27.4 %
71.7 % BTTS
Yes 71.7 %
No 28.3 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or USA
55.9 %
12 Either team wins
78.8 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Türkiye 17.1 % · USA 13.5 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Türkiye 56.0 % · USA 44.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Türkiye 14.8 % · USA 11.2 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Türkiye 24.8 % · USA 17.6 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-1 8.18 %
- 1-1 8.16 %
- 2-2 7.22 %
- 1-2 7.20 %
- 3-1 5.47 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-1 (8.18%); next scenarios: 1-1 (8.16%), 2-2 (7.22%).
Elo context
Türkiye1850
USA1804
Elo gap of 45 points in favour of Türkiye (slight).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Türkiye vs USA analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.