1X Turkey or draw
50.8 %
Turkey
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 26, 2026 · 04:00
United States👑
Model favorite United States win 49.2 %
FavoriteUnited States
Confidence score48.7 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Turkey win | 30.29 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 20.54 % |
| United States win | 49.17 % |
Clear 18.9-point lead for the most likely scenario.
United States has already qualified. The model still reflects the estimated strength of both teams, but lineup choices, intensity or game management may differ from a normal high-stakes match.
Goal trends
74.2 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 74.2 %
Under 2.5 25.8 %
72.3 % BTTS
Yes 72.3 %
No 27.7 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or United States
69.7 %
12 Either team wins
79.5 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Turkey 11.3 % · United States 18.4 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Turkey 38.1 % · United States 61.9 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Turkey 9.2 % · United States 16.3 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Turkey 14.8 % · United States 29.2 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-2 8.37 %
- 1-1 7.69 %
- 2-2 7.09 %
- 2-1 6.51 %
- 1-3 6.08 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-2 (8.37%); next scenarios: 1-1 (7.69%), 2-2 (7.09%).
Elo context
Turkey1772
United States1865
Elo gap of 93 points in favour of United States (moderate).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Turkey vs United States analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.