1X Turkey or draw
68.8 %
Turkey
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 20, 2026 · 05:00
Paraguay
Model favorite Turkey win 43.7 %
FavoriteTurkey
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Turkey win | 43.68 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.13 % |
| Paraguay win | 31.19 % |
Clear 12.5-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
52.5 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 52.5 %
Under 2.5 47.5 %
55.9 % BTTS
Yes 55.9 %
No 44.1 %
Reading: both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Paraguay
56.3 %
12 Either team wins
74.9 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Turkey 28.6 % · Paraguay 21.7 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Turkey 58.3 % · Paraguay 41.7 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Turkey 22.4 % · Paraguay 15.5 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Turkey 21.7 % · Paraguay 13.2 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 11.88 %
- 1-0 9.50 %
- 2-1 9.06 %
- 0-1 7.79 %
- 1-2 7.43 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (11.88%); next scenarios: 1-0 (9.50%), 2-1 (9.06%).
Elo context
Turkey1811
Paraguay1759
Elo gap of 52 points in favour of Turkey (slight).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Turkey vs Paraguay analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.