1X Türkiye or draw
68.5 %
Türkiye
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 20, 2026 · 05:00
Paraguay
Model favorite Türkiye win 42.2 %
FavoriteTürkiye
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Türkiye win | 42.20 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.30 % |
| Paraguay win | 31.50 % |
Tight 10.7-point lead between the two most likely scenarios.
Goal trends
52.3 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 52.3 %
Over 2.5 47.7 %
52.2 % BTTS
Yes 52.2 %
No 47.8 %
No clear goal trend: balanced markets.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Paraguay
57.8 %
12 Either team wins
73.7 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Türkiye 30.8 % · Paraguay 24.6 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Türkiye 57.3 % · Paraguay 42.7 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Türkiye 23.3 % · Paraguay 17.0 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Türkiye 20.0 % · Paraguay 12.9 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 12.51 %
- 1-0 10.64 %
- 0-1 8.91 %
- 2-1 8.78 %
- 0-0 7.57 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (12.51%); next scenarios: 1-0 (10.64%), 0-1 (8.91%).
Elo context
Türkiye1850
Paraguay1806
Elo gap of 43 points in favour of Türkiye (slight).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Türkiye vs Paraguay analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.