1X Tunisia or draw
37.9 %
Tunisia
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 26, 2026 · 01:00
Netherlands
Model favorite Netherlands win 62.1 %
FavoriteNetherlands
Confidence score65.8 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Tunisia win | 17.56 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 20.34 % |
| Netherlands win | 62.10 % |
Dominant scenario: 41.8-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
60.3 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 60.3 %
Under 2.5 39.7 %
56.1 % BTTS
Yes 56.1 %
No 43.9 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Netherlands
82.4 %
12 Either team wins
79.7 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Tunisia 12.3 % · Netherlands 36.0 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Tunisia 22.0 % · Netherlands 78.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Tunisia 7.8 % · Netherlands 31.6 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Tunisia 6.1 % · Netherlands 38.6 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-2 9.93 %
- 0-2 9.73 %
- 1-1 9.47 %
- 0-1 9.27 %
- 1-3 6.95 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-2 (9.93%); next scenarios: 0-2 (9.73%), 1-1 (9.47%).
Elo context
Tunisia1723
Netherlands1938
Elo gap of 215 points in favour of Netherlands (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Tunisia vs Netherlands analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.