1X Tunisia or draw
30.5 %
Tunisia
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 26, 2026 · 01:00
Netherlands
Model favorite Netherlands win 69.5 %
FavoriteNetherlands
Confidence score72.4 %
StabilityCorrect
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Tunisia win | 14.04 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 16.46 % |
| Netherlands win | 69.50 % |
Dominant scenario: 53.0-point lead over the next.
Tunisia has already been eliminated. Motivation, tactical choices or rotation may differ from a standard match scenario.
Goal trends
72.2 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 72.2 %
Under 2.5 27.8 %
62.5 % BTTS
Yes 62.5 %
No 37.5 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Netherlands
86.0 %
12 Either team wins
83.5 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Tunisia 7.2 % · Netherlands 32.6 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Tunisia 16.8 % · Netherlands 83.2 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Tunisia 4.9 % · Netherlands 30.2 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Tunisia 5.0 % · Netherlands 48.4 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-2 9.13 %
- 0-2 8.15 %
- 1-3 7.99 %
- 0-3 7.14 %
- 1-1 6.96 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-2 (9.13%); next scenarios: 0-2 (8.15%), 1-3 (7.99%).
Elo context
Tunisia1641
Netherlands1960
Elo gap of 319 points in favour of Netherlands (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Tunisia vs Netherlands analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.