1X Tunisia or draw
38.5 %
Tunisia
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 21, 2026 · 06:00
Japan
Model favorite Japan win 61.5 %
FavoriteJapan
Confidence score65.8 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Tunisia win | 15.33 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.18 % |
| Japan win | 61.50 % |
Dominant scenario: 38.3-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
55.2 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 55.2 %
Over 2.5 44.8 %
57.3 % No BTTS
No 57.3 %
Yes 42.7 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority).
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Japan
84.7 %
12 Either team wins
76.8 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Tunisia 17.6 % · Japan 48.2 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Tunisia 19.9 % · Japan 80.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Tunisia 9.1 % · Japan 39.7 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Tunisia 4.3 % · Japan 35.2 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 0-1 14.74 %
- 0-2 12.80 %
- 1-1 10.76 %
- 1-2 9.34 %
- 0-0 8.49 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 0-1 (14.74%); next scenarios: 0-2 (12.80%), 1-1 (10.76%).
Elo context
Tunisia1723
Japan1922
Elo gap of 199 points in favour of Japan (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Tunisia vs Japan analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.