1X Sweden or draw
63.5 %
Sweden
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 15, 2026 · 04:00
Tunisia
Model favorite Sweden win 41.3 %
FavoriteSweden
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Sweden win | 41.32 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 22.15 % |
| Tunisia win | 36.53 % |
Three scenarios very close: undecided match according to the model.
Goal trends
68.4 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 68.4 %
Under 2.5 31.6 %
68.6 % BTTS
Yes 68.6 %
No 31.4 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Tunisia
58.7 %
12 Either team wins
77.8 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Sweden 18.2 % · Tunisia 16.2 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Sweden 53.1 % · Tunisia 46.9 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Sweden 15.2 % · Tunisia 13.2 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Sweden 22.0 % · Tunisia 18.5 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 9.13 %
- 2-1 8.32 %
- 1-2 7.78 %
- 2-2 7.09 %
- 1-0 5.36 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (9.13%); next scenarios: 2-1 (8.32%), 1-2 (7.78%).
Elo context
Sweden1739
Tunisia1716
Very small Elo gap: teams rated close to each other.
Match FAQ
How should I read the Sweden vs Tunisia analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.