1X Spain or draw
91.4 %
Spain
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 21, 2026 · 18:00
Saudi Arabia
Model favorite Spain win 75.8 %
FavoriteSpain
Confidence score83.7 %
StabilityStable
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Spain win | 75.79 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 15.64 % |
| Saudi Arabia win | 8.58 % |
Dominant scenario: 60.2-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
59.8 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 59.8 %
Under 2.5 40.2 %
55.0 % No BTTS
No 55.0 %
Yes 45.0 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority).
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Saudi Arabia
24.2 %
12 Either team wins
84.4 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Spain 50.6 % · Saudi Arabia 8.9 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Spain 89.8 % · Saudi Arabia 10.2 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Spain 46.1 % · Saudi Arabia 4.4 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Spain 53.0 % · Saudi Arabia 2.2 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-0 13.20 %
- 1-0 10.93 %
- 3-0 10.64 %
- 2-1 8.99 %
- 1-1 7.44 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-0 (13.20%); next scenarios: 1-0 (10.93%), 3-0 (10.64%).
Elo context
Spain2069
Saudi Arabia1682
Elo gap of 386 points in favour of Spain (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Spain vs Saudi Arabia analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.