1X Spain or draw
94.1 %
Spain
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 15, 2026 · 18:00
Cape Verde
Model favorite Spain win 80.4 %
FavoriteSpain
Confidence score92.6 %
StabilityStable
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Spain win | 80.41 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 13.72 % |
| Cape Verde win | 5.87 % |
Dominant scenario: 66.7-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
58.1 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 58.1 %
Under 2.5 41.9 %
62.5 % No BTTS
No 62.5 %
Yes 37.5 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Cape Verde
19.6 %
12 Either team wins
86.3 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Spain 59.1 % · Cape Verde 8.3 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Spain 93.2 % · Cape Verde 6.8 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Spain 54.2 % · Cape Verde 3.4 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Spain 58.3 % · Cape Verde 1.2 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-0 15.19 %
- 3-0 12.64 %
- 1-0 12.17 %
- 2-1 7.99 %
- 4-0 7.88 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-0 (15.19%); next scenarios: 3-0 (12.64%), 1-0 (12.17%).
Elo context
Spain2085
Cape Verde1617
Elo gap of 467 points in favour of Spain (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Spain vs Cape Verde analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.