1X Spain or draw
72.5 %
Spain
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 10, 2026 · 21:00
Belgium
Model favorite Spain win 53.6 %
FavoriteSpain
Confidence score55.0 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Spain win | 53.64 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 18.84 % |
| Belgium win | 27.52 % |
Dominant scenario: 26.1-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
80.7 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 80.7 %
Under 2.5 19.3 %
76.9 % BTTS
Yes 76.9 %
No 23.1 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Belgium
46.4 %
12 Either team wins
81.2 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Spain 16.4 % · Belgium 8.0 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Spain 66.1 % · Belgium 33.9 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Spain 15.1 % · Belgium 6.7 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Spain 34.2 % · Belgium 13.6 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-1 7.57 %
- 2-2 6.85 %
- 3-1 6.37 %
- 1-1 6.00 %
- 3-2 5.77 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-1 (7.57%); next scenarios: 2-2 (6.85%), 3-1 (6.37%).
Elo context
Spain2114
Belgium1976
Elo gap of 138 points in favour of Spain (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Spain vs Belgium analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.