1X Spain or draw
81.9 %
Spain
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 2, 2026 · 21:00
Austria
Model favorite Spain win 63.6 %
FavoriteSpain
Confidence score65.9 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Spain win | 63.60 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 18.26 % |
| Austria win | 18.14 % |
Dominant scenario: 45.3-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
71.6 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 71.6 %
Under 2.5 28.4 %
65.4 % BTTS
Yes 65.4 %
No 34.6 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Austria
36.4 %
12 Either team wins
81.7 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Spain 28.4 % · Austria 8.6 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Spain 77.8 % · Austria 22.2 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Spain 26.0 % · Austria 6.2 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Spain 42.1 % · Austria 7.1 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-1 9.27 %
- 3-1 7.58 %
- 1-1 7.56 %
- 2-0 7.37 %
- 3-0 6.02 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-1 (9.27%); next scenarios: 3-1 (7.58%), 1-1 (7.56%).
Elo context
Spain2090
Austria1848
Elo gap of 242 points in favour of Spain (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Spain vs Austria analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.