1X Spain or draw
59.4 %
Spain
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 19, 2026 · 21:00
Argentina
Model favorite Argentina win 40.6 %
FavoriteArgentina
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Spain win | 35.59 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.86 % |
| Argentina win | 40.56 % |
Three scenarios very close: undecided match according to the model.
Goal trends
59.7 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 59.7 %
Under 2.5 40.3 %
61.8 % BTTS
Yes 61.8 %
No 38.2 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Argentina
64.4 %
12 Either team wins
76.1 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Spain 20.1 % · Argentina 22.6 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Spain 46.7 % · Argentina 53.3 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Spain 15.6 % · Argentina 18.0 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Spain 16.8 % · Argentina 20.4 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 10.85 %
- 1-2 8.69 %
- 2-1 8.07 %
- 0-1 7.29 %
- 1-0 6.77 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (10.85%); next scenarios: 1-2 (8.69%), 2-1 (8.07%).
Elo context
Spain2146
Argentina2168
Very small Elo gap: teams rated close to each other.
Match FAQ
How should I read the Spain vs Argentina analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.