1X South Africa or draw
49.7 %
South Africa
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 28, 2026 · 21:00
Canada
Model favorite Canada win 50.3 %
FavoriteCanada
Confidence score55.0 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| South Africa win | 20.79 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 28.88 % |
| Canada win | 50.33 % |
Clear 21.4-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
67.0 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 67.0 %
Over 2.5 33.0 %
62.5 % No BTTS
No 62.5 %
Yes 37.5 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Canada
79.2 %
12 Either team wins
71.1 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
South Africa 27.2 % · Canada 48.4 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
South Africa 29.2 % · Canada 70.8 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
South Africa 14.0 % · Canada 35.2 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
South Africa 6.0 % · Canada 23.7 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 0-1 17.15 %
- 0-0 13.18 %
- 1-1 12.44 %
- 0-2 11.16 %
- 1-0 9.56 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 0-1 (17.15%); next scenarios: 0-0 (13.18%), 1-1 (12.44%).
Elo context
South Africa1691
Canada1802
Elo gap of 110 points in favour of Canada (moderate).
Match FAQ
How should I read the South Africa vs Canada analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.