1X Senegal or draw
79.1 %
Senegal
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 26, 2026 · 21:00
Iraq
Model favorite Senegal win 53.7 %
FavoriteSenegal
Confidence score54.9 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Senegal win | 53.74 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.40 % |
| Iraq win | 20.86 % |
Dominant scenario: 28.3-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
56.0 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 56.0 %
Over 2.5 44.0 %
54.0 % No BTTS
No 54.0 %
Yes 46.0 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority).
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Iraq
46.3 %
12 Either team wins
74.6 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Senegal 41.9 % · Iraq 20.9 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Senegal 72.0 % · Iraq 28.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Senegal 33.1 % · Iraq 12.1 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Senegal 28.3 % · Iraq 6.8 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 13.70 %
- 1-1 11.92 %
- 2-0 10.73 %
- 2-1 9.34 %
- 0-0 8.74 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (13.70%); next scenarios: 1-1 (11.92%), 2-0 (10.73%).
Elo context
Senegal1846
Iraq1712
Elo gap of 134 points in favour of Senegal (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Senegal vs Iraq analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.