1X Senegal or draw
77.2 %
Senegal
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 26, 2026 · 21:00
Iraq
Model favorite Senegal win 53.8 %
FavoriteSenegal
Confidence score55.0 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Senegal win | 53.81 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.41 % |
| Iraq win | 22.78 % |
Dominant scenario: 30.4-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
53.9 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 53.9 %
Under 2.5 46.1 %
54.4 % BTTS
Yes 54.4 %
No 45.6 %
No clear goal trend: balanced markets.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Iraq
46.2 %
12 Either team wins
76.6 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Senegal 34.4 % · Iraq 17.1 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Senegal 70.3 % · Iraq 29.7 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Senegal 28.6 % · Iraq 11.2 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Senegal 30.0 % · Iraq 8.4 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 11.08 %
- 1-0 10.40 %
- 2-1 9.79 %
- 2-0 9.19 %
- 0-1 6.27 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (11.08%); next scenarios: 1-0 (10.40%), 2-1 (9.79%).
Elo context
Senegal1800
Iraq1665
Elo gap of 135 points in favour of Senegal (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Senegal vs Iraq analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.