1X Saudi Arabia or draw
33.4 %
Saudi Arabia
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 16, 2026 · 00:00
Uruguay
Model favorite Uruguay win 66.7 %
FavoriteUruguay
Confidence score72.4 %
StabilityCorrect
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Saudi Arabia win | 9.33 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.01 % |
| Uruguay win | 66.65 % |
Dominant scenario: 42.6-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
67.7 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 67.7 %
Over 2.5 32.3 %
73.0 % No BTTS
No 73.0 %
Yes 27.0 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Uruguay
90.7 %
12 Either team wins
76.0 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Saudi Arabia 20.5 % · Uruguay 66.0 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Saudi Arabia 12.3 % · Uruguay 87.7 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Saudi Arabia 7.0 % · Uruguay 52.5 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Saudi Arabia 1.6 % · Uruguay 37.3 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 0-1 21.45 %
- 0-2 17.00 %
- 0-0 13.53 %
- 0-3 8.98 %
- 1-1 8.90 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 0-1 (21.45%); next scenarios: 0-2 (17.00%), 0-0 (13.53%).
Elo context
Saudi Arabia1662
Uruguay1898
Elo gap of 236 points in favour of Uruguay (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.