1X Portugal or draw
86.2 %
Portugal
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 23, 2026 · 19:00
Uzbekistan
Model favorite Portugal win 61.8 %
FavoritePortugal
Confidence score65.8 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Portugal win | 61.75 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.44 % |
| Uzbekistan win | 13.81 % |
Dominant scenario: 37.3-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
61.7 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 61.7 %
Over 2.5 38.3 %
63.5 % No BTTS
No 63.5 %
Yes 36.5 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Uzbekistan
38.2 %
12 Either team wins
75.6 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Portugal 54.4 % · Uzbekistan 20.0 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Portugal 81.7 % · Uzbekistan 18.3 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Portugal 43.5 % · Uzbekistan 9.1 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Portugal 34.1 % · Uzbekistan 3.4 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 17.49 %
- 2-0 14.09 %
- 0-0 10.86 %
- 1-1 10.66 %
- 2-1 8.59 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (17.49%); next scenarios: 2-0 (14.09%), 0-0 (10.86%).
Elo context
Portugal1967
Uzbekistan1768
Elo gap of 198 points in favour of Portugal (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Portugal vs Uzbekistan analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.