1X Portugal or draw
84.4 %
Portugal
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 23, 2026 · 19:00
Uzbekistan
Model favorite Portugal win 62.9 %
FavoritePortugal
Confidence score65.8 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Portugal win | 62.92 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.50 % |
| Uzbekistan win | 15.57 % |
Dominant scenario: 41.4-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
51.6 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 51.6 %
Under 2.5 48.4 %
52.0 % No BTTS
No 52.0 %
Yes 48.0 %
No clear goal trend: balanced markets.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Uzbekistan
37.1 %
12 Either team wins
78.5 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Portugal 43.7 % · Uzbekistan 14.8 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Portugal 80.2 % · Uzbekistan 19.8 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Portugal 37.3 % · Uzbekistan 8.3 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Portugal 37.9 % · Uzbekistan 4.7 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 12.35 %
- 2-0 11.81 %
- 1-1 10.22 %
- 2-1 9.77 %
- 3-0 7.53 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (12.35%); next scenarios: 2-0 (11.81%), 1-1 (10.22%).
Elo context
Portugal1961
Uzbekistan1744
Elo gap of 217 points in favour of Portugal (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Portugal vs Uzbekistan analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.