1X Portugal or draw
49.2 %
Portugal
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 6, 2026 · 21:00
Spain
Model favorite Spain win 50.8 %
FavoriteSpain
Confidence score55.0 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Portugal win | 28.71 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 20.51 % |
| Spain win | 50.79 % |
Clear 22.1-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
73.3 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 73.3 %
Under 2.5 26.7 %
71.3 % BTTS
Yes 71.3 %
No 28.7 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Spain
71.3 %
12 Either team wins
79.5 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Portugal 11.2 % · Spain 19.7 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Portugal 36.1 % · Spain 63.9 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Portugal 9.0 % · Spain 17.5 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Portugal 13.6 % · Spain 30.4 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-2 8.60 %
- 1-1 7.85 %
- 2-2 6.98 %
- 2-1 6.37 %
- 1-3 6.28 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-2 (8.60%); next scenarios: 1-1 (7.85%), 2-2 (6.98%).
Elo context
Portugal1993
Spain2101
Elo gap of 108 points in favour of Spain (moderate).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Portugal vs Spain analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.