1X Portugal or draw
50.5 %
Portugal
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 6, 2026 · 21:00
Spain
Model favorite Spain win 49.5 %
FavoriteSpain
Confidence score48.8 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Portugal win | 30.33 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 20.20 % |
| Spain win | 49.47 % |
Clear 19.1-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
75.9 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 75.9 %
Under 2.5 24.1 %
73.7 % BTTS
Yes 73.7 %
No 26.3 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Spain
69.7 %
12 Either team wins
79.8 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Portugal 10.6 % · Spain 17.5 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Portugal 38.0 % · Spain 62.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Portugal 8.8 % · Spain 15.7 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Portugal 15.0 % · Spain 29.7 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-2 8.15 %
- 1-1 7.28 %
- 2-2 7.10 %
- 2-1 6.34 %
- 1-3 6.09 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-2 (8.15%); next scenarios: 1-1 (7.28%), 2-2 (7.10%).
Elo context
Portugal2006
Spain2101
Elo gap of 95 points in favour of Spain (moderate).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Portugal vs Spain analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.