1X Portugal or draw
68.0 %
Portugal
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 3, 2026 · 01:00
Croatia
Model favorite Portugal win 46.5 %
FavoritePortugal
Confidence score48.7 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Portugal win | 46.50 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.44 % |
| Croatia win | 32.05 % |
Clear 14.5-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
70.6 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 70.6 %
Under 2.5 29.4 %
69.8 % BTTS
Yes 69.8 %
No 30.2 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Croatia
53.5 %
12 Either team wins
78.6 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Portugal 19.3 % · Croatia 13.5 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Portugal 59.2 % · Croatia 40.8 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Portugal 16.7 % · Croatia 10.9 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Portugal 26.4 % · Croatia 15.6 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-1 8.60 %
- 1-1 8.57 %
- 2-2 7.07 %
- 1-2 7.05 %
- 3-1 5.75 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-1 (8.60%); next scenarios: 1-1 (8.57%), 2-2 (7.07%).
Elo context
Portugal1978
Croatia1909
Elo gap of 68 points in favour of Portugal (moderate).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Portugal vs Croatia analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.