1X Portugal or draw
91.6 %
Portugal
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 17, 2026 · 19:00
Congo DR
Model favorite Portugal win 70.8 %
FavoritePortugal
Confidence score77.5 %
StabilityCorrect
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Portugal win | 70.77 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 20.87 % |
| Congo DR win | 8.36 % |
Dominant scenario: 49.9-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
61.0 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 61.0 %
Over 2.5 39.0 %
70.1 % No BTTS
No 70.1 %
Yes 29.9 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Congo DR
29.2 %
12 Either team wins
79.1 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Portugal 64.3 % · Congo DR 16.5 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Portugal 89.4 % · Congo DR 10.6 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Portugal 53.7 % · Congo DR 5.9 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Portugal 43.0 % · Congo DR 1.6 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 19.09 %
- 2-0 17.22 %
- 0-0 10.59 %
- 3-0 10.35 %
- 1-1 8.44 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (19.09%); next scenarios: 2-0 (17.22%), 0-0 (10.59%).
Elo context
Portugal1967
Congo DR1685
Elo gap of 282 points in favour of Portugal (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Portugal vs Congo DR analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.