1X Paraguay or draw
61.7 %
Paraguay
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 26, 2026 · 04:00
Australia
Model favorite Australia win 38.3 %
FavoriteAustralia
Confidence score37.7 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Paraguay win | 31.56 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 30.18 % |
| Australia win | 38.26 % |
Tight 6.7-point lead between the two most likely scenarios.
Goal trends
65.9 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 65.9 %
Over 2.5 34.1 %
58.7 % No BTTS
No 58.7 %
Yes 41.3 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority).
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Australia
68.4 %
12 Either team wins
69.8 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Paraguay 33.4 % · Australia 38.0 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Paraguay 45.2 % · Australia 54.8 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Paraguay 20.7 % · Australia 25.3 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Paraguay 11.5 % · Australia 15.5 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 0-1 13.92 %
- 1-1 13.47 %
- 0-0 12.69 %
- 1-0 12.28 %
- 0-2 7.63 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 0-1 (13.92%); next scenarios: 1-1 (13.47%), 0-0 (12.69%).
Elo context
Paraguay1806
Australia1831
Very small Elo gap: teams rated close to each other.
Match FAQ
How should I read the Paraguay vs Australia analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.