1X Paraguay or draw
56.8 %
Paraguay
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 26, 2026 · 04:00
Australia
Model favorite Australia win 43.2 %
FavoriteAustralia
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Paraguay win | 27.72 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 29.10 % |
| Australia win | 43.18 % |
Clear 14.1-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
63.7 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 63.7 %
Over 2.5 36.3 %
57.5 % No BTTS
No 57.5 %
Yes 42.5 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority).
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Australia
72.3 %
12 Either team wins
70.9 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Paraguay 29.4 % · Australia 39.8 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Paraguay 39.1 % · Australia 60.9 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Paraguay 17.7 % · Australia 28.1 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Paraguay 9.6 % · Australia 19.1 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 0-1 14.33 %
- 1-1 13.19 %
- 0-0 11.69 %
- 1-0 10.76 %
- 0-2 8.78 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 0-1 (14.33%); next scenarios: 1-1 (13.19%), 0-0 (11.69%).
Elo context
Paraguay1798
Australia1856
Elo gap of 58 points in favour of Australia (slight).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Paraguay vs Australia analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.