1X Norway or draw
59.9 %
Norway
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 23, 2026 · 02:00
Senegal
Model favorite Senegal win 40.1 %
FavoriteSenegal
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Norway win | 38.98 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 20.95 % |
| Senegal win | 40.06 % |
Three scenarios very close: undecided match according to the model.
Goal trends
74.9 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 74.9 %
Under 2.5 25.1 %
73.7 % BTTS
Yes 73.7 %
No 26.3 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Senegal
61.0 %
12 Either team wins
79.0 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Norway 13.9 % · Senegal 14.3 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Norway 49.3 % · Senegal 50.7 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Norway 11.9 % · Senegal 12.3 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Norway 21.1 % · Senegal 21.9 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 7.64 %
- 1-2 7.53 %
- 2-1 7.43 %
- 2-2 7.32 %
- 1-3 4.95 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (7.64%); next scenarios: 1-2 (7.53%), 2-1 (7.43%).
Elo context
Norway1841
Senegal1846
Very small Elo gap: teams rated close to each other.
Match FAQ
How should I read the Norway vs Senegal analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.