1X Norway or draw
64.3 %
Norway
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 23, 2026 · 02:00
Senegal
Model favorite Norway win 44.3 %
FavoriteNorway
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Norway win | 44.32 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 19.98 % |
| Senegal win | 35.70 % |
Tight 8.6-point lead between the two most likely scenarios.
Goal trends
79.4 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 79.4 %
Under 2.5 20.6 %
77.2 % BTTS
Yes 77.2 %
No 22.8 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Senegal
55.7 %
12 Either team wins
80.0 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Norway 13.5 % · Senegal 10.8 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Norway 55.4 % · Senegal 44.6 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Norway 12.1 % · Senegal 9.3 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Norway 25.9 % · Senegal 19.2 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-2 7.24 %
- 2-1 7.24 %
- 1-2 6.49 %
- 1-1 6.49 %
- 3-2 5.39 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-2 (7.24%); next scenarios: 2-1 (7.24%), 1-2 (6.49%).
Elo context
Norway1874
Senegal1830
Elo gap of 43 points in favour of Norway (slight).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Norway vs Senegal analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.