1X Norway or draw
40.0 %
Norway
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 26, 2026 · 21:00
France
Model favorite France win 60.0 %
FavoriteFrance
Confidence score65.8 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Norway win | 21.74 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 18.23 % |
| France win | 60.02 % |
Dominant scenario: 38.3-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
77.5 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 77.5 %
Under 2.5 22.5 %
72.2 % BTTS
Yes 72.2 %
No 27.8 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or France
78.3 %
12 Either team wins
81.8 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Norway 7.7 % · France 21.7 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Norway 26.6 % · France 73.4 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Norway 6.0 % · France 20.1 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Norway 9.6 % · France 39.6 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-2 8.41 %
- 1-3 7.19 %
- 1-1 6.55 %
- 2-2 6.41 %
- 0-2 5.51 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-2 (8.41%); next scenarios: 1-3 (7.19%), 1-1 (6.55%).
Elo context
Norway1834
France2041
Elo gap of 206 points in favour of France (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Norway vs France analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.