1X Norway or draw
46.4 %
Norway👑
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 26, 2026 · 21:00
France👑
Model favorite France win 53.6 %
FavoriteFrance
Confidence score55.0 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Norway win | 28.14 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 18.21 % |
| France win | 53.65 % |
Dominant scenario: 25.5-point lead over the next.
One team has already qualified. The model still reflects the estimated strength of both teams, but lineup choices, intensity or game management may differ from a normal high-stakes match.
Goal trends
84.1 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 84.1 %
Under 2.5 15.9 %
80.0 % BTTS
Yes 80.0 %
No 20.0 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or France
71.9 %
12 Either team wins
81.8 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Norway 6.9 % · France 14.1 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Norway 34.4 % · France 65.6 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Norway 5.9 % · France 13.2 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Norway 14.4 % · France 34.8 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-2 6.82 %
- 2-2 6.67 %
- 1-3 6.09 %
- 2-3 5.96 %
- 1-1 5.09 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-2 (6.82%); next scenarios: 2-2 (6.67%), 1-3 (6.09%).
Elo context
Norway1904
France2044
Elo gap of 139 points in favour of France (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Norway vs France analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.