1X Norway or draw
49.4 %
Norway
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 11, 2026 · 23:00
England
Model favorite England win 50.6 %
FavoriteEngland
Confidence score55.0 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Norway win | 28.18 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.18 % |
| England win | 50.64 % |
Clear 22.5-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
69.5 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 69.5 %
Under 2.5 30.5 %
68.2 % BTTS
Yes 68.2 %
No 31.8 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or England
71.8 %
12 Either team wins
78.8 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Norway 12.6 % · England 22.0 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Norway 35.8 % · England 64.2 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Norway 9.8 % · England 19.2 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Norway 12.9 % · England 29.7 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-2 9.01 %
- 1-1 8.68 %
- 2-2 6.82 %
- 2-1 6.57 %
- 1-3 6.23 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-2 (9.01%); next scenarios: 1-1 (8.68%), 2-2 (6.82%).
Elo context
Norway1926
England2033
Elo gap of 107 points in favour of England (moderate).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Norway vs England analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.