1X New Zealand or draw
53.2 %
New Zealand
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 22, 2026 · 03:00
Egypt
Model favorite Egypt win 46.8 %
FavoriteEgypt
Confidence score48.5 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| New Zealand win | 26.66 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.51 % |
| Egypt win | 46.83 % |
Clear 20.2-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
55.4 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 55.4 %
Over 2.5 44.6 %
51.2 % No BTTS
No 51.2 %
Yes 48.8 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority).
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Egypt
73.3 %
12 Either team wins
73.5 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
New Zealand 23.6 % · Egypt 36.1 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
New Zealand 36.3 % · Egypt 63.7 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
New Zealand 15.1 % · Egypt 27.6 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
New Zealand 9.8 % · Egypt 23.0 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 12.54 %
- 0-1 12.31 %
- 1-2 9.04 %
- 0-2 8.88 %
- 1-0 8.70 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (12.54%); next scenarios: 0-1 (12.31%), 1-2 (9.04%).
Elo context
New Zealand1677
Egypt1758
Elo gap of 80 points in favour of Egypt (moderate).
Match FAQ
How should I read the New Zealand vs Egypt analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.