1X Netherlands or draw
73.3 %
Netherlands
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 20, 2026 · 19:00
Sweden
Model favorite Netherlands win 54.6 %
FavoriteNetherlands
Confidence score54.9 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Netherlands win | 54.64 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 18.66 % |
| Sweden win | 26.71 % |
Dominant scenario: 27.9-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
80.9 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 80.9 %
Under 2.5 19.1 %
76.9 % BTTS
Yes 76.9 %
No 23.1 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Sweden
45.4 %
12 Either team wins
81.3 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Netherlands 16.7 % · Sweden 7.7 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Netherlands 67.2 % · Sweden 32.8 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Netherlands 15.4 % · Sweden 6.5 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Netherlands 35.1 % · Sweden 13.1 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-1 7.58 %
- 2-2 6.79 %
- 3-1 6.47 %
- 1-1 5.92 %
- 3-2 5.79 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-1 (7.58%); next scenarios: 2-2 (6.79%), 3-1 (6.47%).
Elo context
Netherlands1942
Sweden1792
Elo gap of 149 points in favour of Netherlands (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Netherlands vs Sweden analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.