1X Netherlands or draw
76.7 %
Netherlands
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 20, 2026 · 19:00
Sweden
Model favorite Netherlands win 59.0 %
FavoriteNetherlands
Confidence score59.9 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Netherlands win | 59.01 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 17.73 % |
| Sweden win | 23.27 % |
Dominant scenario: 35.7-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
81.9 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 81.9 %
Under 2.5 18.1 %
76.6 % BTTS
Yes 76.6 %
No 23.4 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Sweden
41.0 %
12 Either team wins
82.3 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Netherlands 18.0 % · Sweden 6.6 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Netherlands 71.7 % · Sweden 28.3 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Netherlands 16.8 % · Sweden 5.4 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Netherlands 39.5 % · Sweden 10.9 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-1 7.53 %
- 3-1 6.83 %
- 2-2 6.46 %
- 3-2 5.86 %
- 1-1 5.54 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-1 (7.53%); next scenarios: 3-1 (6.83%), 2-2 (6.46%).
Elo context
Netherlands1938
Sweden1739
Elo gap of 199 points in favour of Netherlands (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Netherlands vs Sweden analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.