1X Netherlands or draw
65.0 %
Netherlands
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 30, 2026 · 03:00
Morocco
Model favorite Netherlands win 39.9 %
FavoriteNetherlands
Confidence score37.7 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Netherlands win | 39.92 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.07 % |
| Morocco win | 35.01 % |
Three scenarios very close: undecided match according to the model.
Goal trends
53.8 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 53.8 %
Under 2.5 46.2 %
57.3 % BTTS
Yes 57.3 %
No 42.7 %
Reading: both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Morocco
60.1 %
12 Either team wins
74.9 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Netherlands 25.6 % · Morocco 23.0 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Netherlands 53.3 % · Morocco 46.7 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Netherlands 19.7 % · Morocco 17.1 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Netherlands 19.2 % · Morocco 15.8 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 11.79 %
- 2-1 8.67 %
- 1-0 8.66 %
- 1-2 8.03 %
- 0-1 8.02 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (11.79%); next scenarios: 2-1 (8.67%), 1-0 (8.66%).
Elo context
Netherlands1972
Morocco1952
Very small Elo gap: teams rated close to each other.
Match FAQ
How should I read the Netherlands vs Morocco analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.