1X Netherlands or draw
64.7 %
Netherlands
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 14, 2026 · 22:00
Japan
Model favorite Netherlands win 41.8 %
FavoriteNetherlands
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Netherlands win | 41.80 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 22.86 % |
| Japan win | 35.34 % |
Tight 6.5-point lead between the two most likely scenarios.
Goal trends
64.6 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 64.6 %
Under 2.5 35.4 %
65.6 % BTTS
Yes 65.6 %
No 34.4 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Japan
58.2 %
12 Either team wins
77.1 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Netherlands 20.5 % · Japan 17.6 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Netherlands 54.2 % · Japan 45.8 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Netherlands 16.9 % · Japan 14.0 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Netherlands 21.9 % · Japan 17.2 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 9.92 %
- 2-1 8.63 %
- 1-2 7.86 %
- 2-2 6.84 %
- 1-0 6.26 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (9.92%); next scenarios: 2-1 (8.63%), 1-2 (7.86%).
Elo context
Netherlands1951
Japan1922
Elo gap of 29 points in favour of Netherlands (slight).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Netherlands vs Japan analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.