1X Netherlands or draw
64.0 %
Netherlands
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 14, 2026 · 22:00
Japan
Model favorite Netherlands win 40.7 %
FavoriteNetherlands
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Netherlands win | 40.66 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.29 % |
| Japan win | 36.05 % |
Three scenarios very close: undecided match according to the model.
Goal trends
62.5 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 62.5 %
Under 2.5 37.5 %
64.0 % BTTS
Yes 64.0 %
No 36.0 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Japan
59.3 %
12 Either team wins
76.7 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Netherlands 21.0 % · Japan 18.9 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Netherlands 53.0 % · Japan 47.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Netherlands 17.1 % · Japan 14.9 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Netherlands 20.8 % · Japan 17.5 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 10.32 %
- 2-1 8.61 %
- 1-2 8.04 %
- 2-2 6.71 %
- 1-0 6.62 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (10.32%); next scenarios: 2-1 (8.61%), 1-2 (8.04%).
Elo context
Netherlands1943
Japan1922
Very small Elo gap: teams rated close to each other.
Match FAQ
How should I read the Netherlands vs Japan analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.