1X Morocco or draw
87.8 %
Morocco
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 25, 2026 · 00:00
Haiti
Model favorite Morocco win 67.8 %
FavoriteMorocco
Confidence score72.6 %
StabilityCorrect
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Morocco win | 67.85 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 19.92 % |
| Haiti win | 12.23 % |
Dominant scenario: 47.9-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
51.3 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 51.3 %
Under 2.5 48.7 %
55.8 % No BTTS
No 55.8 %
Yes 44.2 %
No clear goal trend: balanced markets.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Haiti
32.1 %
12 Either team wins
80.1 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Morocco 49.0 % · Haiti 13.4 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Morocco 84.7 % · Haiti 15.3 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Morocco 42.4 % · Haiti 6.8 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Morocco 42.7 % · Haiti 3.3 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-0 13.25 %
- 1-0 13.17 %
- 2-1 9.47 %
- 1-1 9.40 %
- 3-0 8.89 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-0 (13.25%); next scenarios: 1-0 (13.17%), 2-1 (9.47%).
Elo context
Morocco1913
Haiti1646
Elo gap of 266 points in favour of Morocco (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Morocco vs Haiti analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.