1X Morocco or draw
92.5 %
Morocco
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 25, 2026 · 00:00
Haiti
Model favorite Morocco win 74.2 %
FavoriteMorocco
Confidence score77.8 %
StabilityCorrect
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Morocco win | 74.17 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 18.36 % |
| Haiti win | 7.46 % |
Dominant scenario: 55.8-point lead over the next.
Haiti has already been eliminated. Motivation, tactical choices or rotation may differ from a standard match scenario.
Goal trends
55.2 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 55.2 %
Over 2.5 44.8 %
67.9 % No BTTS
No 67.9 %
Yes 32.1 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Haiti
25.8 %
12 Either team wins
81.6 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Morocco 63.0 % · Haiti 13.5 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Morocco 90.9 % · Haiti 9.1 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Morocco 54.5 % · Haiti 5.0 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Morocco 48.0 % · Haiti 1.4 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-0 17.04 %
- 1-0 17.00 %
- 3-0 11.40 %
- 0-0 8.47 %
- 2-1 7.89 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-0 (17.04%); next scenarios: 1-0 (17.00%), 3-0 (11.40%).
Elo context
Morocco1940
Haiti1610
Elo gap of 329 points in favour of Morocco (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Morocco vs Haiti analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.