1X Mexico or draw
70.9 %
Mexico
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 19, 2026 · 03:00
South Korea
Model favorite Mexico win 41.5 %
FavoriteMexico
Confidence score40.3 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Mexico win | 41.50 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 29.40 % |
| South Korea win | 29.10 % |
Clear 12.1-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
64.1 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 64.1 %
Over 2.5 35.9 %
57.6 % No BTTS
No 57.6 %
Yes 42.4 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority).
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or South Korea
58.5 %
12 Either team wins
70.6 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Mexico 38.9 % · South Korea 30.5 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Mexico 58.8 % · South Korea 41.2 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Mexico 27.1 % · South Korea 18.6 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Mexico 17.9 % · South Korea 10.3 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 14.10 %
- 1-1 13.30 %
- 0-0 11.88 %
- 0-1 11.21 %
- 2-0 8.37 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (14.10%); next scenarios: 1-1 (13.30%), 0-0 (11.88%).
Elo context
Mexico1900
South Korea1853
Elo gap of 46 points in favour of Mexico (slight).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Mexico vs South Korea analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.