1X Mexico or draw
71.0 %
Mexico
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 19, 2026 · 03:00
South Korea
Model favorite Mexico win 43.1 %
FavoriteMexico
Confidence score40.2 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Mexico win | 43.11 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.92 % |
| South Korea win | 28.97 % |
Clear 14.1-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
59.3 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 59.3 %
Over 2.5 40.7 %
53.7 % No BTTS
No 53.7 %
Yes 46.3 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority).
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or South Korea
56.9 %
12 Either team wins
72.1 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Mexico 36.4 % · South Korea 27.3 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Mexico 59.8 % · South Korea 40.2 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Mexico 26.5 % · South Korea 17.4 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Mexico 19.7 % · South Korea 10.7 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 13.04 %
- 1-0 12.89 %
- 0-1 10.04 %
- 0-0 9.93 %
- 2-1 8.47 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (13.04%); next scenarios: 1-0 (12.89%), 0-1 (10.04%).
Elo context
Mexico1874
South Korea1819
Elo gap of 54 points in favour of Mexico (slight).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Mexico vs South Korea analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.