1X Mexico or draw
89.2 %
Mexico
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 11, 2026 · 21:00
South Africa
Model favorite Mexico win 66.2 %
FavoriteMexico
Confidence score72.4 %
StabilityCorrect
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Mexico win | 66.19 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.02 % |
| South Africa win | 10.80 % |
Dominant scenario: 43.2-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
62.5 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 62.5 %
Over 2.5 37.5 %
67.4 % No BTTS
No 67.4 %
Yes 32.6 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or South Africa
33.8 %
12 Either team wins
77.0 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Mexico 60.0 % · South Africa 18.6 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Mexico 86.0 % · South Africa 14.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Mexico 48.8 % · South Africa 7.4 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Mexico 38.1 % · South Africa 2.3 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 18.77 %
- 2-0 15.79 %
- 0-0 11.16 %
- 1-1 9.59 %
- 3-0 8.85 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (18.77%); next scenarios: 2-0 (15.79%), 0-0 (11.16%).
Elo context
Mexico1874
South Africa1637
Elo gap of 236 points in favour of Mexico (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Mexico vs South Africa analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.