1X Mexico or draw
61.9 %
Mexico
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 6, 2026 · 02:00
England
Model favorite England win 38.1 %
FavoriteEngland
Confidence score37.6 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Mexico win | 32.22 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 29.70 % |
| England win | 38.09 % |
Tight 5.9-point lead between the two most likely scenarios.
Goal trends
64.3 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 64.3 %
Over 2.5 35.6 %
57.3 % No BTTS
No 57.3 %
Yes 42.7 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority).
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or England
67.8 %
12 Either team wins
70.3 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Mexico 32.7 % · England 36.6 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Mexico 45.8 % · England 54.2 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Mexico 20.7 % · England 24.7 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Mexico 12.1 % · England 15.6 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 13.45 %
- 0-1 13.39 %
- 1-0 12.02 %
- 0-0 11.97 %
- 1-2 7.52 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (13.45%); next scenarios: 0-1 (13.39%), 1-0 (12.02%).
Elo context
Mexico1977
England1999
Very small Elo gap: teams rated close to each other.
Match FAQ
How should I read the Mexico vs England analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.