1X Mexico or draw
76.3 %
Mexico
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
July 1, 2026 · 03:00
Ecuador
Model favorite Mexico win 46.5 %
FavoriteMexico
Confidence score48.6 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Mexico win | 46.47 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 29.83 % |
| Ecuador win | 23.71 % |
Clear 16.6-point lead for the most likely scenario.
Goal trends
67.7 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 67.7 %
Over 2.5 32.3 %
61.8 % No BTTS
No 61.8 %
Yes 38.2 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Ecuador
53.5 %
12 Either team wins
70.2 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Mexico 45.8 % · Ecuador 29.5 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Mexico 66.2 % · Ecuador 33.8 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Mexico 32.3 % · Ecuador 16.0 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Mexico 20.8 % · Ecuador 7.2 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-0 16.50 %
- 0-0 13.53 %
- 1-1 12.88 %
- 0-1 10.57 %
- 2-0 10.06 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-0 (16.50%); next scenarios: 0-0 (13.53%), 1-1 (12.88%).
Elo context
Mexico1948
Ecuador1864
Elo gap of 83 points in favour of Mexico (moderate).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Mexico vs Ecuador analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.