1X Japan or draw
77.0 %
Japan
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 26, 2026 · 01:00
Sweden
Model favorite Japan win 57.2 %
FavoriteJapan
Confidence score59.7 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Japan win | 57.16 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 19.85 % |
| Sweden win | 22.99 % |
Dominant scenario: 34.2-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
71.0 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 71.0 %
Under 2.5 29.0 %
67.6 % BTTS
Yes 67.6 %
No 32.4 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Sweden
42.8 %
12 Either team wins
80.2 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Japan 24.7 % · Sweden 10.3 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Japan 71.3 % · Sweden 28.7 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Japan 22.1 % · Sweden 7.8 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Japan 35.8 % · Sweden 9.8 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-1 9.19 %
- 1-1 8.08 %
- 3-1 6.97 %
- 2-0 6.57 %
- 2-2 6.43 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-1 (9.19%); next scenarios: 1-1 (8.08%), 3-1 (6.97%).
Elo context
Japan1945
Sweden1774
Elo gap of 171 points in favour of Japan (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Japan vs Sweden analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.