1X Japan or draw
78.3 %
Japan
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 26, 2026 · 01:00
Sweden
Model favorite Japan win 58.5 %
FavoriteJapan
Confidence score59.9 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Japan win | 58.45 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 19.88 % |
| Sweden win | 21.67 % |
Dominant scenario: 36.8-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
69.0 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 69.0 %
Under 2.5 30.9 %
65.4 % BTTS
Yes 65.4 %
No 34.6 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Sweden
41.5 %
12 Either team wins
80.1 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Japan 26.8 % · Sweden 10.6 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Japan 73.0 % · Sweden 27.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Japan 24.0 % · Sweden 7.7 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Japan 36.7 % · Sweden 8.9 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 2-1 9.43 %
- 1-1 8.39 %
- 2-0 7.17 %
- 3-1 7.06 %
- 1-0 6.37 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 2-1 (9.43%); next scenarios: 1-1 (8.39%), 2-0 (7.17%).
Elo context
Japan1922
Sweden1739
Elo gap of 183 points in favour of Japan (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Japan vs Sweden analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.