1X Ivory Coast or draw
43.3 %
Ivory Coast
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 15, 2026 · 01:00
Ecuador
Model favorite Ecuador win 56.7 %
FavoriteEcuador
Confidence score59.9 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Ivory Coast win | 15.80 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.47 % |
| Ecuador win | 56.73 % |
Dominant scenario: 29.3-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
67.7 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 67.7 %
Over 2.5 32.3 %
66.1 % No BTTS
No 66.1 %
Yes 33.9 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Ecuador
84.2 %
12 Either team wins
72.5 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Ivory Coast 24.6 % · Ecuador 55.1 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Ivory Coast 21.8 % · Ecuador 78.2 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Ivory Coast 11.0 % · Ecuador 41.5 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Ivory Coast 3.8 % · Ecuador 28.6 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 0-1 18.99 %
- 0-0 13.53 %
- 0-2 13.33 %
- 1-1 11.33 %
- 1-0 8.07 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 0-1 (18.99%); next scenarios: 0-0 (13.53%), 0-2 (13.33%).
Elo context
Ivory Coast1749
Ecuador1907
Elo gap of 157 points in favour of Ecuador (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Ivory Coast vs Ecuador analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.