1X Ivory Coast or draw
44.5 %
Ivory Coast
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 15, 2026 · 01:00
Ecuador
Model favorite Ecuador win 55.5 %
FavoriteEcuador
Confidence score59.8 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Ivory Coast win | 16.65 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.81 % |
| Ecuador win | 55.55 % |
Dominant scenario: 27.7-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
67.7 % Under 2.5
Under 2.5 67.7 %
Over 2.5 32.3 %
65.5 % No BTTS
No 65.5 %
Yes 34.5 %
Reading: low-scoring lean (Under 2.5 majority), at least one team expected to stay shut out.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Ecuador
83.3 %
12 Either team wins
72.2 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Ivory Coast 25.1 % · Ecuador 53.9 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Ivory Coast 23.1 % · Ecuador 76.9 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Ivory Coast 11.6 % · Ecuador 40.4 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Ivory Coast 4.2 % · Ecuador 27.6 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 0-1 18.70 %
- 0-0 13.53 %
- 0-2 12.93 %
- 1-1 11.56 %
- 1-0 8.36 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 0-1 (18.70%); next scenarios: 0-0 (13.53%), 0-2 (12.93%).
Elo context
Ivory Coast1765
Ecuador1914
Elo gap of 148 points in favour of Ecuador (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Ivory Coast vs Ecuador analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.