1X Iraq or draw
45.6 %
Iraq
VS
FIFA World Cup 2026
June 17, 2026 · 00:00
Norway
Model favorite Norway win 54.4 %
FavoriteNorway
Confidence score54.9 %
StabilityRisk
Foresportia statistical estimates — a reading aid, not odds or a guaranteed outcome.
1X2 probabilities
| Iraq win | 23.33 % |
|---|---|
| Draw | 22.28 % |
| Norway win | 54.38 % |
Dominant scenario: 31.1-point lead over the next.
Goal trends
59.5 % Over 2.5
Over 2.5 59.5 %
Under 2.5 40.5 %
58.9 % BTTS
Yes 58.9 %
No 41.1 %
Reading: open-match lean (Over 2.5 majority), both teams expected to score.
Double chance
Overlapping markets — read each probability on its own; they do not add up.
X2 Draw or Norway
76.7 %
12 Either team wins
77.7 %
Advanced analysis
Clean sheet · Draw no bet · strong scenarios
Clean sheet — no goal conceded
Iraq 14.9 % · Norway 30.8 %
Draw no bet — stake returned on draw
Iraq 30.0 % · Norway 70.0 %
Win to nil — win without conceding
Iraq 10.3 % · Norway 26.2 %
Win by 2+ goals — margin ≥ 2
Iraq 9.2 % · Norway 31.4 %
Likely scores (Top 5)
- 1-1 10.28 %
- 1-2 9.80 %
- 0-1 8.73 %
- 0-2 8.32 %
- 1-3 6.23 %
Most frequent scenario across our simulations: 1-1 (10.28%); next scenarios: 1-2 (9.80%), 0-1 (8.73%).
Elo context
Iraq1702
Norway1843
Elo gap of 141 points in favour of Norway (significant).
Match FAQ
How should I read the Iraq vs Norway analysis?
The analysis combines 1X2 probabilities, goal trends, likely score and the stability badge to provide a structured reading of the match, without promising a certain result.
What does the stability badge mean for this match?
The badge summarizes how historically reliable the detected scenario is in Foresportia's model. It helps separate fragile signals from statistically clearer matches.
Are these probabilities bookmaker odds?
No. Foresportia probabilities are model-based estimates. They are not betting odds and they are not an incentive to gamble.